信仰基督教的克钦大地变成美国的一个战略卫星哨所

 信仰基督教的克钦大地变成美国的一个战略卫星哨所  

    美国政府的目标相当简单，他们想要把一个信仰基督教的克钦大地变成美国的一个战略卫星哨所，夹在缅甸和中国之间，这样克钦就相当于美国的一个不断向前发展的战略工程。中国十分担忧这样的势头，势必会竭尽所能组织美国在该地区占据立足点。
    无论如何，就印度而言，克钦和内比都之间类似战争的状态的最终结果是不明朗的。克钦或许会接续在该地区保持相当大的影响力，与印度政府及东北部反叛势力的关系现状得以继续维持。就印度利益而言，与克钦重新回到1990年代的那种关系状态或许是摆在眼前的机遇。

    印度可以不做声张地向克钦人提供支持，暗中帮助他们反抗缅甸政府军。作为回报，新德里一定会向克钦作出这样的要求：不允许在其领地上从事任何反印度的活动。印度反叛武装早些时候的避难所如不丹、孟加拉已经失守，此举会摧毁反叛武装最后一个跨越 边境的基地。
     克钦走廊的功能是十分重要的，正如此前所说，阿萨姆联合解放阵线和曼尼普尔人民解放军会将其用作踏板，将骨干运往中国接受训练、拿到武器。实际上上世纪90年代，印度的多个机构与可亲的关系十分成功，现在印度没有理由不这么做。
     此外，缅甸政府军并没有采取任何措施打击印度反叛组织来支援印度。所以，即便是印度继续与内比都维持火热关系，也会发现支持美国在克钦搞的那套符合自身的安全利益。在离中国如此之近的区域建立一个反中国基地符合印度的利益。
     印度所获得的好处还不仅如此，它将会悄无声息地与克钦建立良好稳固的同盟关系，这样印度东北部反叛组织将失去最后一块重整旗鼓的阵地。
        

                                                  作者：Jaideep Article by - Jaideep Saikia (Senior Fellow, VIF)]   Saikia (高级研究员，VIF)     

   (Part 2) The American objective is quite simple. They want a Christian Kachinland to be an US satellite post strategically wedged between Myanmar and China, which would be tantamount to considerable forward engineering for the United States. China is worried about the development and would do anything to prevent the Americans from getting a foothold in the area. At any rate, as far as India is concerned the outcome of a “war-like situation” between the Kachins and Naypyidaw is not clear. Kachins may continue to wield considerable influence in the area, leading to a status quo of sorts as far as India and the problem of North East insurgency is concerned.The opportunity that presents itself to Indian interest is to restore the 1990 relationship it had with the Kachins. India can provide tacit support to the Kachins and clandestinely help them to fight the Myanmarese army. In return, New Delhi must seek a firm commitment that the Kachins will not allow any anti India activity in their territory. With earlier refuge like Bhutan and Bangladesh having been lost, this would destroy the last effective trans-border base of the Indian Insurgent Groups. The defusing of the Kachin corridor is important, because as aforesaid, ULFA and PLA would use it to take cadres to China for training and weapons. Indeed, Indian agencies had with considerable degree of success cultivated the Kachins during 1990s: there is no reason why it cannot do so now. Besides, the Myanmarese army has done nothing until now to aid India by acting against the Indian Insurgent Groups. Therefore, even if India continues to maintain cordial relations with the Tatmadaw, it may find it in the interest of its security calculus to aid the American game in Kachin. It would be in Indian interest to construct an anti-China base in the area that abuts the People’s Republic so closely. The other reward would be that it would have quietly built up a solid ally in the Kachins, whose alliance would ascertain that the North East insurgent groups are denied their last regrouping zone. Article by - Jaideep Saikia (Senior Fellow, VIF)]                                                 Saikia (高级研究员，VIF) 

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